• Spend now, save later

    Yesterday, by Alistair Spearing

    When trapped in quicksand, our instinctive response is to flail about in an attempt to lift ourselves out of this mortal trap, but struggling to get out is actually the quickest way to go down. The solution to the debt crisis could be equally counterintuitive. The famous debt-to-GDP ratio has two components. To reduce (...)

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  • Should the City move to Frankfurt?

    Last Wednesday  04:15, by Professor Gilbert NMO Morris

    Interesting the lengths UK experts will go to, to preserve London; which in my view is good. But this they do, even whilst the UK government sets about undermining financial centres in the Caribbean, which are better regulated than London.

    Professor Gilbert NMO Morris

  • Fog on the channel, continent cuts off

    16 May 2013  13:24, by Iwantout

    To join your debate, please could I offer a little balance and remind you that despite your concentration on the Murdoch and anti EU press throughout the article there are many papers in the UK which hold extremely pro EU views. The Mirror (a tabloid), The Guardian, The Independent all spring to mind. Then of course there are a number of popular news journals which also fall into the pro EU camp, The Economist is perhaps the best example.

    Whilst any review of the print media reveals a range of editorial views on the EU, the same cannot be said of the broadcast media. The BBC in particular has a long history of an unbalanced pro EU stance. This has been portrayed as a cultural and unintentional bias, not my words, but those of an internal BBC report. (apologies about the length but it may be of interest to you. http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust… ) The BBC has gone on record as recently as 2012 as accepting that it still shows such bias and has started a review under Stuart Prebble which is due to report its findings this Summer.

    Finally regarding the print press, please can I remind you of the academic research which suggests that the papers tend to follow public views rather than lead them. The papers after all are trying to sell copies, the research shows that they tend to push stories and editorial lines which their target market approve of, the point under this paradigm is not that the papers form the view, but that they reflect the attitude of their target readership in order to increase sales.

    You rightly comment on the distrust that has grown between politicians and the electorate. As well as the relationship between the media and politicians, you might have touched on the expenses scandal etc. However one of the biggest problems, certainly in relation to the EU is that every major party has in the last 6 years promised the people a referendum on the EU, and in each and every case they have failed to deliver.

    The Peoples’ Pledge (which has people such as John Cruddas Labour Party Head of Policy, Keith Vaz Labour Minister for Europe etc involved and therefore a range of pro and anti EU views) have held a series of local referendum around the country, all under the independent supervision off Electoral Reform Services. Each poll held has revealed a significant majority in favour of a referendum e.g. 89.9% in Thurrock. The ultimate aim is to put pressure on the political elite to hold a national referendum. Their claim that no one under 55 has ever had a say on UK membership of the EU is of course entirely accurate.

    I will happily accept your statistics on the rate of participation in the Erasmus Programme, however I would say in passing that many hundreds of thousands of people travel to the EU for work and/or pleasure, yet the antipathy towards the EU as distinct to Europe remains. We are not a member of Schengen, but I fail to see why showing your passport (a couple of minutes?) is such a big deal, certainly it has not stopped me visiting Europe twice so far this year with several more trips planned.

    With regards to exerting power on EU decisions and our ‘fear of Brussels’, please remember that from the 1st January 2014 the EZ will have the power to out vote all non-euro countries in any decision subject to QMV. Given the (understandable) need of the EZ to act in ways to protect itself regardless of the impact on the non EZ countries then “feelings of being powerless when facing an over-regulative EU” seem quite rational. I would agree entirely with your analysis regarding the “importance of the Parliament in the British representation of a proper democracy” and ask what is wrong with that ?

    The cultural issues you discuss are without doubt important indeed central. As you say we have many differences, although I never previously considered our coins awkward! We do look outside the EU, we have many firm links with what has been described as the Anglosphere and we have a longer historic continuity in terms of institutions and borders than almost all other EU states. In short we have never looked to the EU as a solution to our internal or external tensions.

    I can accept entirely that for many, perhaps even a majority on the mainland continent, an increasingly integrated EU is the way forward; but this is not the case in the UK. http://chathamhousesurvey.org/defau… gives the results of polls concerning the relationship people want the UK to have with the EU. 8% favour more integration, 16% matters to stay as they are, 31% free trade area only, 26% leave, 15% don’t know, this after 40 years of membership. Might it not just be time to accept the view of Jacques Delors “The British are solely concerned about their economic interests, nothing else. They could be offered a different form of partnership," 28/12/12 Handelsblatt.

  • Stop blaming the 4th Reich for the Crisis

    16 May 2013  00:12, by Haris

    In order to say something to one comment, I would like to mention: A seperation of the north-european states and the south-european states would be disastrous. Firstly, France and Germany are two more and more cooperating countries. They are getting more and more together though there are differences in opinions. Secondly, a seperation would damage the single market of the big EU would be much smaller and thereby not productive. And, for concluding, Europe stands in front of the idea of peace. We had two World Wars which were very brutal. Even if we say today, that that could not happen any more, it can still happen. No one believed that there will be a war in the Balcan, and today we know that there was a war. That is something that we have to keep in mind: EU is not just bureaucracy but also peace.

  • A tale of Europe in 2020

    7 May 2013  17:18, by Iwantout

    Regarding democracy, what you wrote was “the UK government decided to ignore the result of the referendum and called a general election.” Well actually that is ignoring popular votes. The idea that such a step could be taken and then be ignored by calling a general election is fundamentally undemocratic and would in any case result in the complete destruction of any party that did so. It is also impossible to then see how the result of such a general election covering a range of policies could be seen to nullify the people’s voice on a single issue, i.e. rejection of EU membership.

    I will leave others to decide whether the prospect of a national army ‘occupying’ one or more cities and then involved in mass disturbances leaving many dead to prevent other votes as sanctioned by legally elected representatives taking place is democratic or not. (By the way I never used the word crushed at all.)

    In terms of default, may I refer you to the debate we had on the 26th & 27th November 2012 (http://www.thenewfederalist.eu/EU-b…) in which I pointed out the draw backs of the current situation largely in relation to Ireland and the benefits of default which you now seem to be accepting within this article. I ask again, why if it is true for the whole EZ sometime in the future is it not true for Spain etc., now? Why do they have to continue to suffer 27% total unemployment and 55% for young people ?

    I appreciate that the original article was ‘A tale’, but I doubt Maria or many of her compatriots would be prepared to wait another five - seven years for the current situation to be resolved.

    Cheers

  • A tale of Europe in 2020

    6 May 2013  23:36, by Artus Galiay

    Dear Iwantout,

    On democracy, I m not ignoring popular votes: the UK government calls a new general election after the referendum, and when it comes to this hypothetical future EU’s legitimacy, please refer to “new right- and left-wing pan-European parties had emerged through the crisis and crushed the populist parties”. “Crush” obviously refers to democratic elections, not some type of “dictatorship”.

    On sovereign default, the current economic debate is biased by the political will to force some countries to undergo deep structural reforms which they would never implement without the threat of default. In pure economic terms, a sovereign default would have short term disruptive effects but would certainly be beneficial over the long term, if well managed (ie not like Argentina).

    Artus

  • A tale of Europe in 2020

    3 May 2013  14:33, by Iwantout

    A thought provoking fairy story. It is interesting how you require democracy to be ignored in both Spain and the UK while at the same time anticipating a military (as distinct from the police) crack down to suppress mass public disorder across many cities in order to get to your happy ending. Some people might suggest that this sounds a little like dictatorship.

    Do you propose to write a second version in which the public are consulted, their views listened to and the EU amends its ambitions accordingly and people grow wealth in trading independent sovereign democratic states ?

    One also wonders why the pan-European sovereign default is portrayed as the start of the recovery when any suggestion that Greece, Ireland et al should act in a similar fashion now is regarded as catastrophic.

  • Should we fear the exit of a European Union Member State?

    22 April 2013  10:10, by David

    The main issue Europe needs to deal with is limiting taxation. A Proposition 13 is needed as was introduced in California to limit property tax there to 1%. The sales tax in California which is one of the highest in the US is only 7%, in some states such as Florida it is 0%, but they still are able to afford state fire, police, highways etc.

    Whereas on the contrary the sales taxes (VAT) especially in the EU are far too high - which is what keeps some members such as the UK from wanting further integration, (and not high enough for some members like Denmark). Limiting the VAT to a maximum of 10% for any member state is critical for achieving further economic success in the region.

  • Stop blaming the 4th Reich for the Crisis

    12 April 2013  02:24, by Greek

    First off i am a greek and i want to say some things that might move the eurocrisis debate forward in a constructive manner:

    . A younger greek generation that is still not in control of the country yet, it is infinitely more modern and thoughful and pro european. We want greece to be a normal country like denmark, not like a european Syria. Hopefully the big changes happening now may allow some of us to exert a bigger influence over a clientelistic political life that has been partly responsible for the ever rising debt and mismanagement.

    . The greeks that you see burning flags and accusing Merkel of being a nazi etc, are mostly misinformed and paranoid individuals with a big attachment to the church and some nationalistic dinosaurs. They are mostly pensioners, and like elsewhere they vote the most but they understand the least about the modern world they live in. Like in other places much of the anger is about the effects of globalisation rather than for germany. This is present in other countries too like the UKIP in UK, and neonazis in Austria.

    . We are grateful for attempts by Ms. Merkel and the Troika to try to root out some corrupt practices in the greek state. It is true that the current government is fighting these reforms tooth and nail. Please persist in demanding a cleaning up of party financing and corruption.

    . I am far less impressed with Ms. Merkel’s vision for the whole continent. She is very good at saying what she doesn’t like but it feels that she lets things get out of hand all the time and only intervenes in the last minute. That leads people to question the motives of the german government. If the german government came up with a positive agenda and showed commitment to the EU and the euro it would calm the jitters and people could resume investing and living their lives normally. Germany needs to get out of the role of the arbiter of what happens in europe asap, for that it needs to stop meddling in unimportant matters and europeanise its industrial policy.

    . The chicago economics/austrian liquidationist policies of the right have had poor results, it is time to try a new policy mix with people that get things done. A new smart protectionism at the eu level needs to work more like china’s aggressive and effective policies. The benefits of these policies need to flow to the whole of the EU not just Germany.

    . The euro has some design flaws that need to be corrected not only through austerity but also a practical program that will make all EU countries relevant in a globalised world where trade with Asia is main new development and will be for the next decade.

    . Some greeks tend to get very hysterical because in the country a protective coccoon of a national myth has been spun for a long time mainly by politicians trying to benefit from any development that happened since 1974. In this parallel universe globalisation had nothing to do with greece in practical terms, cushy state jobs can continue to be created etc.. Someone with authority needs to explain in practical terms that this was always funded by unsustainable loans and now it is over forever. This will convince northern european creditors that the country is abandoning the crazy ways of the past 20 years.

    . The press loves divisive photos that get a reaction. There is always some idiot burning flags and doing nazi salutes or being at the opposite extreme as a left wing fascist or nationalist. People like that are massively over-represented in the media. The silent majority just wants to fix things, however in europe we need to find a way this will be achieved that is realistic and not a bizarre set of policies that is pursued for ideological reasons. Now for 3 years right wing economists in germany and elsewhere promoted this idea that the markets will attack if austerity is not implemented everywhere. In reality this plan is not working very well and it is causing too much depreciation in the price of assets during the crisis, and will cause too much of a boom when things eventually get better.

    . Ms. Merkel seems to want to hold things together, but she needs to stop exploiting politically some stereotypes that have responsibly run economies like Spain and tar them as lazy when they had a public debt lower than that of germany at the start of the crisis.

    . Greece has been incredibly badly managed since 1980 and the current nightmare is the result of that only in part. Conservatives that argued for free consumer lending especially in the south of europe need to take the blame for such bad policies. Greece had state banks that did not give out stupid consumer loans that were used to buy german cars people could not afford. The reality is that bank lending needs to be directed to real-economy businesses by real banks that do not engage in financial engineering or investment banking. This will hurt but it is a necessary change. The economy throughout europe needs to be less about consumption and more about jobs and climate change. This will necessitate a plan like the marshall plan after the second world war and all need to chip in so we all have a better future nor for individualistic ends.

  • Stop blaming the 4th Reich for the Crisis

    9 April 2013  20:21, by Niklas

    Yes of course: It has to be the Deutsche Bundesbank. It is also not Greece, but Italy, who is in the list of private average and median amount of assets higher. Sorry for the mistake: Cyprus is by the way in terms of private income 2nd highest in private net assets. Greece is 14th and Germany on 10th position. See also for German speaking http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik…. For English Speaking go the ECB https://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/t…

  • Stop blaming the 4th Reich for the Crisis

    7 April 2013  11:38, by Charles_M

    I think the patience and tolerance of the Germans is exemplary. If the Germans’s sense of self preservation outweighed their sense of responsibility it would be THEY who dumped the Euro and possibly even the EU. They could easily do without southern europe, the French included. A smaller group of Noth Europeans would be the ideal solution for them.

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