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Gains for Cameron and ECR allies all over Europe

, by Tobias Gerhard Schminke

Cameron and his ECR group in the European parliament would face a considerable increase in seats if there was a European parliament election tomorrow. The share of votes of the ECR would rise three points up to 12 percent, which would be the highest level for the conservative euro-sceptic parties since 1989. The euro-sceptic parties profit from their anti-liberal immigration policy in the refugee crises.


  • est le rédacteur en chef de treffpunkteuropa. Il est l’initiateur de Europeanmeter et de @EuropeElects. Il étudie le journalisme et les sciences politiques à l’université de Haifa. Il travaille en freelance pour le Rhein-Zeitung et pour l’institut de recherche sur l’opinion TeleMatrix.

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Jean-Claude Juncker’s EPP would lose the most votes due to the refugee crises. The group would lose 3.4 points and receive 26 per cent only. This is one point less than the centre-left S&D group. The losses of EPP and the 1.6 increase for the S&D would make Martin Schulz new head of the commission if he was the spitzenkandidat like in the 2014 election. Effectively his faction in parliament would outnumber Juncker’s faction by 5 out of 751 votes.

Global climate change and nuclear energy have not dominated the agenda in Europe at all for months. This has caused harm to the popular support for the green parties all over Europe. Since the 2014 election the G/EFA group drops from 6.8 to 4 per cent. It is the lowest support since 1979. Tsipras’ left wing GUE-NGL group would receive 8 per cent, which is a rise of 1.3 per cent and the strongest support for the far left since 1989. The liberal ALDE group would receive 10 per cent (+1.1 points).

UKIP and its allies would drop from 6.4 to 5 per cent. Le Pen’s right-wing ENF would receive 6 per cent. Other parties are at 2 per cent.

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