The 9th of June electoral night should have focused mainly on the European election results, held from the 6th to the 9th of June across the whole EU. This was without counting the flow of announcements from the different European governments, particularly the one from Paris where the French President called for snap parliamentary elections after he decided to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale.
In France, a far-right (dis)solution
Sunday night, it is 8 p.m. The European election results in France are revealed. Nationalists from the Rassemblement National are leading the polls: more than 31% of the ballots, twice as many as the governmental coalition Renaissance.
One hour later, French President Emmanuel Macron gave an unplanned address. He surprisingly announced the dissolution of the Parliament and called for snap elections. These elections are planned for the 30th of June and the 7th of July, with French MPs being elected by constituencies with a two-round single-member ballot.
These snap elections must be understood as a “poker move.” Indeed, the Macron-supported government did not have the majority of the seats in the chamber (an exceptional situation for a French government), and it was discredited by its results in the European elections.
This situation raises fears of an incredible score for the French far-right in the next elections. According to recent opinion polls, this could lead to a governmental majority for the Rassemblement National. The last far-right government in France was during the Nazi occupation in 1944.
In Belgium, Vivaldi’s dead!
France is not the only country affected by the European election results. In Belgium, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo gave the king his resignation after his party lost the elections. Belgians were called to vote in both the European and national elections.
The Prime Minister succeeded in forming a stable governmental coalition in October 2020, 494 days after the national elections. A coalition called “Vivaldi,” a direct reference to the composer’s masterpiece “Four Seasons,” was made up of different political “colours”: from the Liberals to the Christian democrats, from the Socialists to the Greens. Seven parties were part of this baroque coalition, which did not survive the 9th of June 2024.
The resignation of De Croo could lead the country to instability again. The Vivaldi coalition was born because of the “cordon sanitaire,” the will of Belgian political forces to ostracise any far-right movement. Nevertheless, the high polls for Flemish nationalists from the Vlaams Belang and the N-VA in the 9th of June election (they gained 30% of the ballots) make the ostracisation of the Belgian far-right more and more difficult. Maybe impossible…
In Hungary, Tisza challenges Orbán
In Hungary, European elections were coupled with local elections. This particular scrutiny was considered a test for the Orbán government. Since March 2024, Viktor Orbán’s government has been challenged by a unifying opposition from Peter Magyar. In this month’s elections, the opponent created his party, a centre-right, europhile, and anti-corruption political movement: Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom, TISZA), a direct reference to the last liberal Prime Minister of the 20th-century Kingdom of Hungary: Sir Tisza. For Tisza and its leader, the 9th of June is a victory. Peter Magyar has become a European MP like six other members of Tisza (Hungarian parties have 21 seats to share in the European Parliament). At the European and local level, Orbán’s Fidesz leads the polls, but these are the worst since Viktor Orbán has been in office since 2010.
For Peter Magyar, every day the government is getting weaker in the polls. His goal is now to shape a credible and strong opposition to Fidesz to win the next parliamentary elections.
In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s European coronation
In Italy, it was the current government that emerged stronger from the EU elections. The radical right-wing bloc of Giorgia Meloni’s government scored more than the opposition parties combined. The coalition government won 41 of the 76 seats reserved for Italian parties in the European Parliament.
The leader of the post-fascist party Fratelli d’Italia expressed her joy and contentment following the announcement of the election results. More than that, she expressed her pride at being at the head of the “government of the strongest country in [the whole of Europe].” For Giorgia Meloni, the results of the European elections consolidate her position in the European Union. The Italian government is one of the rare ones in the EU not to have been disowned by its fellow citizens.
With this election score, Meloni became the kingmaker within her country, within the European Council, and the European Parliament. Her group, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), has become a pivotal force at a time when the far-right, the centre-right, and certain Italian and European liberals are no longer ruling out closer collaboration with Fratelli d’Italia.
The electoral night of the 9th of June left little peace on the national political scenes. The dissolution announced by the French President prompted opposition parties in Germany, Spain, Estonia, and Malta to call for early elections in their respective countries. For the moment, these demands are more rhetorical than concrete. For the moment only.
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