Jean-Claude Juncker’s EPP would lose the most votes due to the refugee crises. The group would lose 3.4 points and receive 26 per cent only. This is one point less than the centre-left S&D group. The losses of EPP and the 1.6 increase for the S&D would make Martin Schulz new head of the commission if he was the spitzenkandidat like in the 2014 election. Effectively his faction in parliament would outnumber Juncker’s faction by 5 out of 751 votes.
Global climate change and nuclear energy have not dominated the agenda in Europe at all for months. This has caused harm to the popular support for the green parties all over Europe. Since the 2014 election the G/EFA group drops from 6.8 to 4 per cent. It is the lowest support since 1979. Tsipras’ left wing GUE-NGL group would receive 8 per cent, which is a rise of 1.3 per cent and the strongest support for the far left since 1989. The liberal ALDE group would receive 10 per cent (+1.1 points).
UKIP and its allies would drop from 6.4 to 5 per cent. Le Pen’s right-wing ENF would receive 6 per cent. Other parties are at 2 per cent.