Iceland: The 28th member state of the European Union?

Autonomy is one of the key aspects for Icelanders in the EU accession debate. In 1944 Iceland gained full independence from Denmark, which is why the idea of joining the EU sparked many debates over the years. Would Iceland still be itself if it had to give up a significant part of their sovereignty to the European Union?

One of the arguments against the membership refers to the loss of control over vital industries, such as fisheries. Icelanders have fought hard to keep their waters under national control, and the thought of sharing them under the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy doesn’t sit well with critics of EU accession.

But autonomy isn’t just about fish or laws—it’s also about identity. Icelanders see themselves as independent, self-reliant, and in charge of their own future. Some worry that joining the EU would blur those lines and make Iceland just another small country in a big system. Others believe Iceland’s influence would actually grow inside the EU, giving it a real voice in decisions that already affect it.

The political and societal perspective

The accession debate shapes the public opinion, as a new study conducted by RUV, showed that 58% of Icelanders favour a referendum on whether a decision should be made to re-open negotiations with the EU. The bid was focused on a referendum of Iceland’s new government, which n agenda to hold the vote before 2027. Fewer than 45% thought positively of EU membership, against 35% with negative feelings and 20% who are undecided. This public split shows the uncertainty of Iceland’s future with the Union.

However, this debate is decades old, and Icelanders’ views change with the seasons. From the latter half of the 1980s to the 1990s, attitudes to EU membership were almost equally divided into those for, against and uncertain. Membership support continued to grow in the late 90s, but the financial crisis of 2008 changed the perspective. Iceland’s banking industry crash, together with the contentiousIcesave issue, ensued the decline in support for an EU membership. Even with the government application to start membership talks in 2009, under new political forces as the Left-Green Movement, standing against new progress, the public mood turned even less favourable. By the time the negotiations were suspended in 2015, support amongst the public had further diminished.

The economic perspective

Iceland has been part of the European Economic Area (EEA) since 1994, meaning it fully applies EU laws about the four freedoms - free movement of goods, persons, services, and capital. As a result, most industrial goods traded between Iceland and the EU are tariff-free. However, agriculture and fisheries are not covered by the EEA agreement, meaning these sectors would be significantly affected if Iceland chose to join the EU.

By joining, Iceland would gain full access to the single market, making it easier and potentially cheaper to export fish, aluminium, and other key goods. Furthermore, the country will also be obliged to adopt the euro, which comes with ups and downs. Joining a larger currency market would mean, that the country experiences less fluctuation, and it might improve price stability with lower borrowing costs for Icelandic companies. However, Iceland will lose its sovereignty of its own currency, which could be a challenge for such an export oriented economy.

Another aspect that would come with, an EU membership would be the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), that requires Iceland to share its fishing waters. This is a major concern since the fishing industry is a crucial part of Iceland’s economy and currently the biggest hurdle to an Icelandic membership of the EU.

A final stop to whaling?

Another sea related struggle would be the farewell to the traditional hunt for whales. It is safe to say that the hunter’s prey only contributes a minimal amount of the fishy supply, nonetheless embodies a high traditional value. Just this winter, Iceland’s officials permitted an extended run of the tradition up until 2029, leading to further outrage with environmentalist organizations. If the majority of Icelanders give their thumbs up in the upcoming referendum, all hopes for whale hunt enthusiasts must abandon ship due to international démarche led by the EU. How big of an influence the tradition to an EU acquisition has is up for debate, a study from 2015 found out, only 1.4% of Icelanders name whaling as their main reason behind an anti-EU stance.

Immigration debates might spark up

One of the biggest key points of being an EU member is the dominant debate on migration. Challenging social cohesion since 2015, the rise of anti-EU, pro-russian and right-wing political parties can be directly linked to the complexity of the challenges with migration.

Despite its isolated spot on the European map, Iceland records new highs of immigration flows. By 2021 Icelanders are said to have a rather positive view on migration, as it fills an important economic gap. An important aspect to take into consideration is that migrant origin and background might be linked to the level of integration. Numbers show that immigration flows by country of origin in 2022 are dominated by Poles (around 22%) and Ukrainians (around 13%).

Joining the European Union also means joining the EU’s asylum policies which would lead to a distribution of asylum seekers from such places as the Middle East or North Africa, hence countries with currently a small share of migrants in Iceland right now and a much diverse cultural background. How optimism and willingness to help backlash can be seen in Sweden, where organized crime and gang structures forced the government to U-turn their migration policies. Denmark’s migration policies, on the other hand, is seen as a positive example by some European partners. It is up to Icelandic policymakers to find the right path in order to prevent situations as in other EU member states, where right-wing parties are gaining more and more influence.

What lies ahead for Iceland?

Iceland’s debate over joining the EU comes down to a balance between independence and opportunity. Some believe full membership would give Iceland more influence over the rules it already follows, while others worry it would mean losing control over important industries like fishing. Economically, joining the EU could make trade easier and more stable, but it would also come with new responsibilities, including changes to immigration policies. It will be a decision by the Icelandic people to choose what true independence means: staying out and making their own rules, or joining and having a say in decisions that already affect them. The upcoming referendum will be a big moment in shaping Iceland’s future.