With Ishiba Shigeru as Japan’s new prime minister, there are promising opportunities that this change of leadership could deepen EU-Japan relations. While Japan is not expected to “shift” its foreign policy drastically under Ishiba, his reputation as a critic within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and his critical stance towards otherwise very typical views within the Japanese political tradition offer potential opportunities for stronger ties with the European Union. In short, under Shigeru there is room for stronger collaboration between Japan and Europe, collaboration built on shared values, economic partnerships, and mutual defense.
Strengthening values and ever stronger cooperation
Ishiba has long taken a critical stance towards power structures entrenched in Japan’s political elite (and even in his own party), and he has shown a willingness to speak truth to power, advocating for greater transparency and public accountability. This characteristic aligns well with the EU’s emphasis on democratic governance and the rule of law, and it is a marked change from the last few Prime Ministers in Japan.
Former Prime Ministers like Shinzo Abe were well known for their historical revisionism and rather extremist positions on Japanese atrocities committed in Korea and China, for example, which divided Japan and exasperated South Korea and other neighbors to say the least. Under Ishiba’s leadership, Japan could strengthen its alignment with democratic values and foster greater historical awareness of its imperial past, especially as global authoritarianism continues its rise.
His openness to social issues, such as allowing married couples to keep separate surnames—a symbolic move toward gender equality—suggests he may also be a partner in advancing equal rights agendas. The revitalization of depopulating rural areas of Japan is also one cornerstone of his (as yet vague) economic plans. Both the demographic and social nature of some of his policies seem very promising and very recognizable from a European viewpoint, but it remains to be seen whether this becomes practice.
Economic revitalization
As Japan grapples with an aging population and a depopulating countryside, there is significant potential for collaboration in areas such as rural development, digitalization, and renewable energy—sectors from which the EU could greatly benefit. Ishiba’s focus on these issues could lead to more joint initiatives, especially under frameworks like the EU-Japan Strategic Partnership Agreement, which is just one of three major agreements signed in the last few years.
Both Japan and the European Union are deeply economically interconnected with China, a shared position that could bring them into closer alignment. In many instances, this is already the case, like the well-established EU-Japan Cyber Dialogue partnership “in favor of an open, free, fair, stable, and secure cyberspace,” but there is always room for further growth. Many partnerships and agreements have been signed, but whether this will create a smaller, more liberal version of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, like some scholars pose, remains to be seen.
A Balanced Approach to Security
Perhaps the most significant impact Ishiba’s leadership could have on EU-Japan relations concerns security. His desire to strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities while maintaining dialogue with neighboring countries presents a nuanced approach to regional security. While Ishiba advocates for a more independent Japan in its relationship with the United States, he has also expressed interest in creating a broader “Asian NATO”—an idea that, if managed pragmatically, could match the EU’s increasing interest in Indo-Pacific security.
Ishiba’s assertive approach to Japan’s imperial history and his support for improving relations with South Korea suggest that he could champion a more diplomatic, less nationalistic security strategy—something the EU would likely support, given its preference for multilateralism and conflict resolution over hard power.
Challenges
Yet, there are real risks that Ishiba could be hampered by internal LDP dynamics. His leadership is far from secure, and the right-wing parts of the party could hamper change, especially with upcoming lower house elections on the horizon. Ishiba will need to balance his desire for certain reforms with the reality of governing, and this could result in compromises that make substantial shifts less likely.
Furthermore, his call for creating an “Asian NATO” could be seen as provocative by some states, raising concerns about escalating tensions with China, a major trade partner for both Japan and the EU. The EU, which seeks a balance between economic cooperation with China and upholding international law in already tense regions like the South China Sea, might find itself at odds with Japan if Ishiba’s security agenda tilts too far toward Asian security “chess.” The last thing that both the EU and Japan need is a regional bipolar order within Asia (China vs. the rest), in which China potentially hardens its military stance when overhearing “Asian NATO” talks.
A Diplomatic Opportunity
In the end, Ishiba’s leadership presents both opportunities and challenges for the EU. His blend of pragmatic domestic and foreign policies, a commitment to regional revitalization, and a balanced approach to security could strengthen EU-Japan cooperation in critical areas like democracy, climate action, and regional peace. However, much will depend on whether Ishiba can navigate Japan’s conservative political landscape and how he will approach China-Japan relations.
The EU should seize this moment to deepen its ties with Japan, offering cooperation on shared priorities while encouraging Ishiba to favor soft diplomacy over military posturing in Asia. An ever-closer EU-Japan relationship under Ishiba’s leadership could serve as a model for balancing economic cooperation, democratic values, and regional security in an increasingly tense Asia-Pacific region.
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