20 December 2024: Germany is reeling from a terrorist attack at a Christmas market, sparking social and political upheaval as the nation navigates a turbulent period marked by governmental collapse and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of a critical 2025 election. On Friday, 20 December 2024, suspect Taleb al-Abdulmohsen drove into crowds during a Christmas market celebration in Magdeburg, Germany. The attack claimed five lives and injured over 200 people, with many remaining in critical condition.
The tragedy quickly became a flashpoint for political debate, with the German far-right exploiting the disaster to advance their narratives on domestic security and anti-immigration policies. Amid the collapse of the ruling coalition, a no-confidence vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and the dissolution of the German parliament, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to gain momentum in the February election, using incidents like the Magdeburg attack to reinforce their platform.
Who was the Suspect? Taleb al-Abdulmohsen is a 50-year-old Saudi Arabian immigrant who arrived in Germany in 2006 and has worked as a psychiatrist in Bernburg, a city 50 km (30 miles) south of Magdeburg. Abdulmohsen is currently believed to have acted alone, though his motive remains unclear.
Germany has previously faced similar incidents, including a Christmas market attack in Berlin 2016 and other terror-related threats this year, such as knife attacks in Mannheim in June and Solingen in August—both explicitly linked to Islamic radicalism. However, Abdulmohsen’s case presents a complex picture, as he has been openly critical of Islam and is known to oppose violence stemming from Islamic radicalism.
An ex-Muslim, or murtadd, Abdulmohsen was granted asylum in Germany in 2016. He later launched a website aimed at assisting other former Muslims in escaping persecution in their Gulf-state homelands. In 2019, he was interviewed by the BBC about his work, discussing efforts to “save” ex-Muslims from state-sponsored terror. Abdulmohsen has also been vocal online, writing against Islam on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and expressing solidarity with the values of the AfD party.
Security Issues: Abdulmohsen had reportedly been on the radar of German authorities for years due to concerns over his extreme views. Following Germany’s acceptance of over a million refugees from the Middle East in 2015, Abdulmohsen publicly expressed his discontent with what he called the “Islamization” of the nation.
For nearly a decade, Abdulmohsen has shared anti-Islamic views on social media, including statements such as, “German terrorism will be brought to justice. It’s very likely that I will die this year in order to bring justice.” He was particularly angered by the work of Atheist Refugee Relief, an NGO supporting women escaping oppressive regimes. His antagonism toward the organization escalated to the point where a local German court mandated him to cease defamatory and accusatory posts.
Saudi Arabia first alerted Germany about Abdulmohsen in 2007, citing his radical views as grounds for extradition. In the past year alone, Saudi authorities issued four Notes Verbales to German intelligence services and the foreign ministry, warning about his activities. Despite these alerts, German authorities, including Holger Münch, the president of the German Federal Office of Criminal Investigation, stated that while “proceedings were initiated,” Abdulmohsen “was not known for violent acts.”
Right-Wing and Extremist Galvanization: Immigration, national security, and national identity have become pivotal issues in Germany’s recent EU and state elections, fueling significant gains for far-right and right-wing parties such as the AfD. In the aftermath of the Magdeburg tragedy, right-wing politicians seized the opportunity to capitalize on the attack, spreading unsubstantiated claims of a broader terroristic threat—alleging that there were five attackers, that the perpetrators were Syrian refugees, and that a hidden bomb was involved.
AfD leaders like Vanessa Behrendt and Austrian ethno-nationalist Martin Sellner orchestrated mass disinformation campaigns around the attack, using the tragedy to target Germany’s longstanding coalition parties, including the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens, and the Left Party.
The AfD has also highlighted previously ignored warnings about Abdulmohsen as a major point of criticism, attacking the interior minister and the SPD for perceived failures in governance.
Rallying around issues like security and migration, the AfD has framed Magdeburg as yet another example of what they call the failure of contemporary German politics, positioning their policies as a path to safety and “liberation from madness.” Traditionally, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), were seen as champions of security and order. However, with the rise of extremism, the AfD—and even far-left parties like the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), led by the pro-Russian politician Sahra Wagenknecht—are poised to make significant gains.
The September state elections highlighted this shift in public sentiment, with the AfD achieving massive gains in Saxony, Brandenburg, and Thuringia. The Thuringia win marked the first far-right electoral victory of its kind in Germany since World War II, solidifying the AfD’s growing influence. The AfD response to Abdulmohesen was, in an ironic fate, “he would have deported the man long ago.”
German Government Response: On 25 December, German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser urged the AfD and other far-right figures not to politicize the Magdeburg tragedy for personal or party gain. Faeser announced, “Any attempt to exploit such a terrible act and to abuse the suffering of the victims is despicable,” emphasizing that such actions reveal the true character of AfD party members.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other German leaders attended a vigil in Magdeburg, laying flowers and offering condolences to the victims and their families. On 21 December, Abdulmohsen appeared in court, where a few additional details about his possible motive were disclosed.
Since the 2016 Berlin attack, German authorities have implemented heightened security measures for Christmas markets. Despite these efforts, Magdeburg police chief Tom-Oliver Langhans revealed that Abdulmohsen exploited a security entrance typically reserved for emergency vehicles to carry out the attack.
The tragedy has put Magdeburg city officials and Saxony-Anhalt state authorities under intense scrutiny for allegedly disregarding earlier warnings about Abdulmohsen’s behavior and signs of mental instability.
Electoral Consequences: Germany has faced a tumultuous December following the collapse of the ruling traffic-light coalition in November, plunging the nation into further disarray. The coalition, composed of the SPD, FDP, and Greens, held a dismal 14% public confidence rating prior to its dissolution, triggered by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s firing of Finance Minister Christian Lindner. Scholz attempted to govern with a minority government, but mounting challenges—including economic stagnation, global crises facing the West, and pressing issues around migration and housing—ultimately forced a no-confidence vote.
On 16 December, Scholz faced an anticipated loss in the no-confidence vote, a move described as “kamikaze,” as he sought to position voters to “determine the political course of our country.” German politics now face myriad challenges, foremost among them the growing fragmentation of the Bundestag. Parliament currently hosts more parties than ever before, many of which lean toward extremism.
The AfD, which entered the Bundestag in 2017 with 12.6% of the vote, has since surged to nearly 20% nationwide. While it remains unlikely the AfD will lead Germany anytime soon—no party has expressed willingness to form a coalition with them—their continued erosion of traditional parties’ vote shares is significant. Scholz’s SPD, in particular, has seen substantial losses. Meanwhile, the CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, now leads in the polls, but potential coalition partners are shrinking.
On 27 December, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved parliament at Scholz’s request, paving the way for earlier-than-expected elections, now set for 23 February. Campaigns are already underway, with parties vying to present their visions for a “new Germany.”
Immigration and security are among the top voter concerns, and the Magdeburg disaster could influence voters in two key directions: driving them toward extremist solutions to address longstanding issues, or consolidating support for centrist parties as a bulwark against further chaos. One thing is clear—the balance of power in Germany and the broader EU hinges on the outcome of February’s critical election.
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